Singleton

If one AI project gains a decisive lead — maybe one developed by the United States or China — it could become the One Big AGI that polices all the others. This approach, known as a singleton, would concentrate AI power in a single dominant system capable of preventing other AGIs from becoming dangerous.

The idea is to create an AI system so powerful that it can monitor, control, and shut down any other AI systems that might pose a threat, effectively becoming the global AI governance system.

Potential advantages:

• Eliminates competitive dynamics between multiple AGIs
• Could enforce safety standards across all AI development
• Provides centralized control over AI capabilities
• Prevents arms races between nations and companies

Critical problems:

• One shot only: We only get one shot at setting this up, and we must ensure that this One Big AGI never gets misaligned. We must build the most complex software system ever undertaken by humans, and somehow make sure it has zero bugs that eventually lead to catastrophe.
• Current alignment failures: Right now, AI companies spend millions of dollars to make their AI systems safe, and yet these AIs still resist being shut down, blackmail their users, and even decide to kill people to achieve their goals. They are pulled outside of our small island of human-compatibility because the most-logical options are simply better at achieving certain goals.
• Technical impossibility: Creating a perfectly aligned singleton requires solving alignment for the most powerful AI system ever built, with no room for error. Any misalignment in such a powerful system would be catastrophic.
• Political challenges: Getting global agreement on who controls the singleton and how it operates would require unprecedented international cooperation.
• Concentration of power: Places enormous power in the hands of whoever controls the singleton, creating new risks of abuse or failure.

The singleton approach might delay the competitive dynamics problem, but it doesn't solve the fundamental challenge of building perfectly aligned AGI systems. It essentially bets everything on getting alignment right on the first and most important try.